The Fall Market Has Arrived. Here’s What the Numbers Are Really Saying.

September brought a noticeable shift in Durham Region.

Sales slowed. New listings increased. Inventory moved higher. And while the average sale price edged up from August, the overall market moved further into Buyer’s Market territory.

That doesn't mean Buyers are suddenly calling all the shots or that Sellers need to panic.

It means the market is becoming more selective.

And in a selective market, pricing, preparation and strategy matter more than ever.

Here’s what the September numbers are really telling us.

Durham Region Market Snapshot

In September, Durham Region recorded 525 home sales, compared with 568 in August.

The average sale price increased slightly to $829,993, up 0.8% from August's $823,153.

But here's where the story gets interesting.

New listings jumped to 1,840, up approximately 29% from August, while active listings increased to 2,635.

At the same time, the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio fell to 29%.

According to CLAR, a ratio below 40% indicates a Buyer’s Market.

So while prices didn't fall dramatically, the balance of power shifted.

September at a glance

Correction: The September report shows 31 days on market, compared with 33 days in August, so homes actually sold slightly faster, despite the increase in supply.

The average sale-to-list price ratio stayed at 99% (Durham Region average).

That tells us something important:

Buyers have more choice, but well-priced homes are still selling.

What Changed From September 2025?

The year-over-year comparison gives us an even clearer picture.

In September 2025, Durham recorded 707 sales at an average price of $877,963. Clar Homes

This September:

• Sales: 525 vs. 707 last year, down approximately 25.7%
• Average price: $829,993 vs. $877,963, down approximately 5.5%
• New listings: 1,840 vs. 2,082, down approximately 11.6%
• Active listings: 2,635 vs. 2,810, down approximately 6.2%
• Days on market: 31 vs. 29 last year

So yes, the market is slower than it was a year ago.

But slower doesn't automatically mean unhealthy.

It means Buyers are taking longer to make decisions, Sellers need to meet the market where it is today, and the difference between a well-positioned home and an overpriced one is becoming increasingly important.

How Did Each Home Type Perform?

September's average prices tell an interesting story.

Detached Homes

Detached homes averaged $924,040 in September, up slightly from August.

This remains the largest segment of the Durham market, but Buyers are clearly being more careful about value.

For Sellers, this is where pricing strategy becomes especially important.

A beautiful home can still sit if the price doesn't align with what Buyers are seeing in comparable properties.

For Buyers, the slower pace creates more opportunity to investigate, compare and negotiate without the same urgency we saw during stronger Seller markets.

Semi-Detached Homes

Semi-detached homes averaged $676,692, down 2.9% from August.

This segment continues to offer Buyers a more attainable price point than detached homes, but affordability remains a major consideration.

For Sellers, understanding the competition matters. Buyers aren't simply comparing your home to another semi-detached property. They may also be weighing a townhouse, link home or condo townhouse.

Your home needs to make sense against all of those alternatives.

Condo & Townhouse Market

Condo/townhouse properties averaged $562,969, essentially unchanged from August.

This part of the market continues to attract Buyers who are looking for a lower entry point, less maintenance or a different lifestyle.

But Buyers are also paying close attention to monthly carrying costs, condo fees, building condition and future resale potential.

For investors, those numbers matter even more.

The purchase price alone doesn't tell you whether a property is a good investment.

Condo Apartments

Condo apartments were one of the weaker segments in September.

The average price fell to $439,309, down approximately 9.2% from August.

This is a segment where Buyers have become particularly selective.

If you're selling a condo apartment, condition, fees, parking, locker, building reputation and location can all affect how your property performs.

A condo isn't competing against the entire Durham market.

It's competing against the other condos a Buyer can purchase right now.

Durham Region By Community

One of the biggest mistakes people make when looking at real estate statistics is treating Durham Region as one market.

It isn't.

September's numbers make that very clear.

A few things stand out.

Clarington and Whitby had some of the quickest average selling times, at 24 and 25 days respectively.

Scugog had the highest average days on market at 63 days, while Uxbridge averaged 38.

And the price gap across Durham remains significant.

The September average ranged from $617,600 in Brock to $1,277,553 in Uxbridge.

That’s why saying "the Durham market is up" or "the Durham market is down" doesn't tell you enough.

Your neighbourhood matters. Your property type matters. Your price point matters.

What This Means for Buyers

If you're a Buyer, September is giving you something you've been asking for:

Choice.

With a 29% Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio, Buyers have more leverage than they would in a balanced or Seller's market.

You may have more opportunity to:

• Take your time evaluating a property
• Negotiate price and terms
• Request appropriate conditions
• Compare multiple homes
• Walk away from a property that doesn't make financial sense

But there's an important distinction.

More negotiating power doesn't mean every home is a bargain.

Well-priced, well-presented homes can still attract attention and sell.

The opportunity is in knowing the difference.

What This Means for Sellers

This is where strategy becomes critical.

In a Buyer’s Market, you can't simply put a sign on the lawn and hope the market does the rest.

Your home needs to compete.

That starts with pricing.

Then comes presentation.

Then marketing.

Then negotiation.

And all four need to work together.

One of the biggest mistakes we see Sellers make is thinking they can simply start high and reduce the price later.

It sounds harmless.

It isn't.

Once a listing sits, Buyer psychology changes.

People start asking:

"What's wrong with it?"

And when a price reduction eventually happens, you may be negotiating from a weaker position than you would have been if you'd priced strategically from day one.

That's exactly why I wrote:

The Real Cost of Overpricing Your Home

It's not just about the price you put on the listing.

It's about what overpricing can cost you in time, exposure, leverage and ultimately your final sale price.

What This Means for Investors

Investors should be paying close attention to this market.

Not because prices are suddenly cheap.

Because selectivity creates opportunities for disciplined investors.

The right property still needs to make sense after you factor in:

• Purchase price
• Financing
• Property taxes
• Condo fees
• Insurance
• Maintenance
• Vacancy
• Rental income
• Future resale potential

A property that looks inexpensive isn't necessarily a good investment.

The numbers have to work.

The Bottom Line

September gave us a much clearer picture of where Durham Region is heading into fall.

Sales are slower.

Buyers have more leverage.

Inventory has increased.

Prices are holding relatively well despite the shift in market balance.

And most importantly, the market is no longer rewarding Sellers simply for showing up.

It's rewarding strategy.

For Buyers, that means more choice and more time to make thoughtful decisions.

For Sellers, it means pricing correctly, preparing properly and creating a marketing strategy that gets attention from the right Buyers.

And for everyone watching the market, it reinforces something I've been saying throughout 2026:

Real estate isn't one market. It's a collection of micro-markets, property types and individual circumstances.

The question isn't simply, "What's the market doing?"

The better question is:

"What is the market doing for a home like mine, in my neighbourhood, at my price point?"

That's where the real insight begins.

Thinking About Your Next Move?

Whether you're considering selling this fall, thinking about buying, planning for 2027 or simply wondering what your home is worth today, I'm always happy to have a conversation.

No pressure. No obligation. Just real numbers and a strategy built around your situation.

The Durham Life starts with the right move.